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Gossau vs Eschen / Mauren — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2025

Gossau
Gossau
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Eschen / Mauren
Eschen / Mauren
8/6/20221. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Sportanlage Buechenwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gossau51%
×Draw20%
Eschen / Mauren29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gossau
2.25
Eschen / Mauren
1.67

Gossau creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gossau
2.33
Eschen / Mauren
1.33

allows per match

Gossau
2.00
Eschen / Mauren
2.17

finishing

Gossau+0.00on par
Eschen / Mauren+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gossau ↓

Eschen / Mauren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Gossau or draw
71%
Gossau or Eschen / Mauren
80%
Draw or Eschen / Mauren
49%

Winning margin

Gossau wins by 2+
30%
Eschen / Mauren wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gossau 1+ goals
89%
Gossau 2+ goals
65%
Gossau 3+ goals
39%
Eschen / Mauren 1+ goals
81%
Eschen / Mauren 2+ goals
50%
Eschen / Mauren 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Gossau (draw refunded)
64%
Eschen / Mauren (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gossau at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Eschen / Mauren away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gossau attack 2.33 + Eschen / Mauren defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.25

Eschen / Mauren attack 1.33 + Gossau defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gossau scores more
51%
level
20%
Eschen / Mauren scores more
29%

Gossau at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gossau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gossau vs Eschen / Mauren

Gossau beat Eschen / Mauren 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Buechenwald in Gossau.