Eschen / Mauren 4–0 Gossau: Result & Stats

Eschen / Mauren

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Gossau

M. Sutter 66'

J. Daniel 52', 18'

A. M. Munoz Caballe 5'

3/17/2024

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Sportpark Eschen/Mauren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Eschen / Mauren60%

×Draw27%

Gossau14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eschen / MaurenExpected goals in this matchGossau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.53

Eschen / Mauren

1.44

Gossau

0.53

Eschen / Mauren creates 172% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

1.22

creates per match

0.00

1.06

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Eschen / Mauren

1.22

Gossau

0.00

allows per match

Eschen / Mauren

1.06

Gossau

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eschen / Mauren+0.00on par

Gossau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eschen / Mauren ↓

Gossau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Eschen / Mauren or draw

86%

Eschen / Mauren or Gossau

73%

Draw or Gossau

40%

Winning margin

Eschen / Mauren wins by 2+

31%

Gossau wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Eschen / Mauren 1+ goals

76%

Eschen / Mauren 2+ goals

42%

Eschen / Mauren 3+ goals

18%

Gossau 1+ goals

41%

Gossau 2+ goals

10%

Gossau 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Eschen / Mauren (draw refunded)

81%

Gossau (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eschen / Mauren at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Gossau away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eschen / Mauren attack 1.22 + Gossau defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gossau attack 0.00 + Eschen / Mauren defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Eschen / Mauren scores more

60%

level

27%

Gossau scores more

14%

Eschen / Mauren at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Eschen / Mauren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

A. M. Munoz Caballe

18'

J. Daniel

52'

J. Daniel

66'

M. Sutter

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff