Gosnells City 0–1 Curtin University: Result & Stats

Gosnells City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Curtin University

4/26/2025

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 5Walter Padbury Reserve A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gosnells City27%

×Draw24%

Curtin University49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gosnells CityExpected goals in this matchCurtin University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.68

Gosnells City

1.17

Curtin University

1.68

Curtin University creates 44% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

1.23

creates per match

0.95

2.41

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Gosnells City

1.23

Curtin University

0.95

allows per match

Gosnells City

2.41

Curtin University

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gosnells City+0.00on par

Curtin University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gosnells City ↓

Curtin University →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gosnells City or draw

51%

Gosnells City or Curtin University

76%

Draw or Curtin University

73%

Winning margin

Gosnells City wins by 2+

11%

Curtin University wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Gosnells City 1+ goals

69%

Gosnells City 2+ goals

33%

Gosnells City 3+ goals

11%

Curtin University 1+ goals

81%

Curtin University 2+ goals

50%

Curtin University 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Gosnells City (draw refunded)

35%

Curtin University (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gosnells City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.41 · 22 matches

Curtin University away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gosnells City attack 1.23 + Curtin University defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Curtin University attack 0.95 + Gosnells City defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gosnells City scores more

27%

level

24%

Curtin University scores more

49%

Curtin University at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Curtin University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff