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Curtin University vs Gosnells City — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Curtin University
Curtin University
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gosnells City
Gosnells City
7/5/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 15Edinburgh Oval A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Curtin University38%
×Draw22%
Gosnells City40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curtin University
1.77
Gosnells City
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Curtin University
1.26
Gosnells City
0.91

allows per match

Curtin University
2.74
Gosnells City
2.27

finishing

Curtin University+0.00on par
Gosnells City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curtin University ↓

Gosnells City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Curtin University or draw
60%
Curtin University or Gosnells City
78%
Draw or Gosnells City
62%

Winning margin

Curtin University wins by 2+
19%
Gosnells City wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Curtin University 1+ goals
83%
Curtin University 2+ goals
53%
Curtin University 3+ goals
26%
Gosnells City 1+ goals
84%
Gosnells City 2+ goals
54%
Gosnells City 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Curtin University (draw refunded)
48%
Gosnells City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curtin University at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

Gosnells City away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curtin University attack 1.26 + Gosnells City defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.77

Gosnells City attack 0.91 + Curtin University defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Curtin University scores more
38%
level
22%
Gosnells City scores more
40%

Gosnells City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gosnells City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Curtin University vs Gosnells City

Curtin University beat Gosnells City 2-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on July 5, 2025.

The match was played at Edinburgh Oval A in Bentley.