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GOŠK Gabela vs Čapljina — 1st League - FBiH 2019

GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
FT
1 – 0
Čapljina
Čapljina
8/16/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 2Stadion Podavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

GOŠK Gabela63%
×Draw21%
Čapljina16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Gabela
1.99
Čapljina
0.87

GOŠK Gabela creates 129% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 23 away

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela
2.03
Čapljina
0.91

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela
0.83
Čapljina
1.96

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par
Čapljina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Čapljina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw
84%
GOŠK Gabela or Čapljina
79%
Draw or Čapljina
37%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
39%
Čapljina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
86%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
59%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
32%
Čapljina 1+ goals
58%
Čapljina 2+ goals
22%
Čapljina 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
80%
Čapljina (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Čapljina away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 2.03 + Čapljina defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.99

Čapljina attack 0.91 + GOŠK Gabela defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more
63%
level
21%
Čapljina scores more
16%

GOŠK Gabela at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "GOŠK Gabela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOŠK Gabela vs Čapljina

GOŠK Gabela beat Čapljina 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Podavala in Gabela.