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Čapljina vs GOŠK Gabela — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čapljina
Čapljina
FT
2 – 1
GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
9/7/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 5Stadion Bjelave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Čapljina43%
×Draw27%
GOŠK Gabela30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čapljina
1.33
GOŠK Gabela
1.06

Čapljina creates 25% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 66 away

creates per match

Čapljina
1.57
GOŠK Gabela
1.29

allows per match

Čapljina
0.83
GOŠK Gabela
1.08

finishing

Čapljina+0.00on par
GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čapljina ↓

GOŠK Gabela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Čapljina or draw
70%
Čapljina or GOŠK Gabela
73%
Draw or GOŠK Gabela
57%

Winning margin

Čapljina wins by 2+
20%
GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Čapljina 1+ goals
74%
Čapljina 2+ goals
38%
Čapljina 3+ goals
15%
GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
65%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
29%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Čapljina (draw refunded)
59%
GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čapljina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čapljina attack 1.57 + GOŠK Gabela defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.29 + Čapljina defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Čapljina scores more
43%
level
27%
GOŠK Gabela scores more
30%

Čapljina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Čapljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Čapljina 2–1 GOŠK Gabela

Čapljina beat GOŠK Gabela 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Bjelave in Čapljina.