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GOŠK Gabela vs Borac Banja Luka — Premijer Liga 2019

GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
12/4/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 16Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

GOŠK Gabela20%
×Draw24%
Borac Banja Luka55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Gabela
0.91
Borac Banja Luka
1.67

Borac Banja Luka creates 84% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 109 away

creates per match

GOŠK Gabela
0.84
Borac Banja Luka
1.30

allows per match

GOŠK Gabela
2.03
Borac Banja Luka
0.98

finishing

GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par
Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Gabela ↓

Borac Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

GOŠK Gabela or draw
45%
GOŠK Gabela or Borac Banja Luka
76%
Draw or Borac Banja Luka
80%

Winning margin

GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
7%
Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
60%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
23%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
6%
Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
81%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
50%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
27%
Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Gabela at home — creates 0.84, concedes 2.03 · 32 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.98 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Gabela attack 0.84 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.30 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

GOŠK Gabela scores more
20%
level
24%
Borac Banja Luka scores more
55%

Borac Banja Luka at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOŠK Gabela vs Borac Banja Luka

Borac Banja Luka beat GOŠK Gabela 2-0 in Premijer Liga on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Perica-Pero Pavlović in Gabela.