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Borac Banja Luka vs GOŠK Gabela — Premijer Liga 2019

Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
GOŠK Gabela
GOŠK Gabela
5/4/2024Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 30Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Borac Banja Luka65%
×Draw20%
GOŠK Gabela15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Banja Luka
2.12
GOŠK Gabela
0.89

Borac Banja Luka creates 138% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 34 away

creates per match

Borac Banja Luka
2.02
GOŠK Gabela
1.15

allows per match

Borac Banja Luka
0.63
GOŠK Gabela
2.21

finishing

Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par
GOŠK Gabela+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Banja Luka ↓

GOŠK Gabela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Borac Banja Luka or draw
85%
Borac Banja Luka or GOŠK Gabela
80%
Draw or GOŠK Gabela
35%

Winning margin

Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
41%
GOŠK Gabela wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
88%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
62%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
35%
GOŠK Gabela 1+ goals
59%
GOŠK Gabela 2+ goals
22%
GOŠK Gabela 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
82%
GOŠK Gabela (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Banja Luka at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.63 · 114 matches

GOŠK Gabela away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Banja Luka attack 2.02 + GOŠK Gabela defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.12

GOŠK Gabela attack 1.15 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Borac Banja Luka scores more
65%
level
20%
GOŠK Gabela scores more
15%

Borac Banja Luka at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Borac Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Borac Banja Luka 3–1 GOŠK Gabela

Borac Banja Luka beat GOŠK Gabela 3-1 in Premijer Liga on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banja Luka.