Górnik Zabrze U19 4–1 Cracovia U19: Result & Stats

Górnik Zabrze U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cracovia U19

5/13/2023

Central Youth League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Górnik Zabrze U1957%

×Draw20%

Cracovia U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik Zabrze U19Expected goals in this matchCracovia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.44

Górnik Zabrze U19

2.33

Cracovia U19

1.44

Górnik Zabrze U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 38 away

2.13

creates per match

1.58

1.29

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze U19

2.13

Cracovia U19

1.58

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze U19

1.29

Cracovia U19

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Zabrze U19+0.00on par

Cracovia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze U19 ↓

Cracovia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze U19 or draw

77%

Górnik Zabrze U19 or Cracovia U19

80%

Draw or Cracovia U19

43%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze U19 wins by 2+

36%

Cracovia U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze U19 1+ goals

90%

Górnik Zabrze U19 2+ goals

67%

Górnik Zabrze U19 3+ goals

41%

Cracovia U19 1+ goals

76%

Cracovia U19 2+ goals

42%

Cracovia U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Cracovia U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Cracovia U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze U19 attack 2.13 + Cracovia U19 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.33

Cracovia U19 attack 1.58 + Górnik Zabrze U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Górnik Zabrze U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Cracovia U19 scores more

23%

Górnik Zabrze U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff