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Cracovia U19 vs Górnik Zabrze U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Cracovia U19
Cracovia U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Górnik Zabrze U19
Górnik Zabrze U19
5/17/2025Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Cracovia U1938%
×Draw21%
Górnik Zabrze U1942%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia U19
1.97
Górnik Zabrze U19
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 53 away

creates per match

Cracovia U19
2.19
Górnik Zabrze U19
1.81

allows per match

Cracovia U19
2.35
Górnik Zabrze U19
1.75

finishing

Cracovia U19+0.00on par
Górnik Zabrze U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia U19 ↓

Górnik Zabrze U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Cracovia U19 or draw
58%
Cracovia U19 or Górnik Zabrze U19
79%
Draw or Górnik Zabrze U19
62%

Winning margin

Cracovia U19 wins by 2+
20%
Górnik Zabrze U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Cracovia U19 1+ goals
86%
Cracovia U19 2+ goals
58%
Cracovia U19 3+ goals
31%
Górnik Zabrze U19 1+ goals
87%
Górnik Zabrze U19 2+ goals
61%
Górnik Zabrze U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Cracovia U19 (draw refunded)
47%
Górnik Zabrze U19 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.35 · 37 matches

Górnik Zabrze U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.75 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia U19 attack 2.19 + Górnik Zabrze U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.97

Górnik Zabrze U19 attack 1.81 + Cracovia U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cracovia U19 scores more
38%
level
21%
Górnik Zabrze U19 scores more
42%

Górnik Zabrze U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Cracovia U19 2–2 Górnik Zabrze U19

Cracovia U19 and Górnik Zabrze U19 drew 2-2 in Central Youth League on May 17, 2025.