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Górnik Zabrze II vs Górnik Polkowice — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
5/25/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 32Boisko GKS Gwarek Ornontwice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II41%
×Draw24%
Górnik Polkowice34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze II
1.56
Górnik Polkowice
1.40

Górnik Zabrze II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 51 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.79
Górnik Polkowice
1.55

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.25
Górnik Polkowice
1.33

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw
66%
Górnik Zabrze II or Górnik Polkowice
76%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
59%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
20%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
79%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
46%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
21%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
75%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
41%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
55%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more
41%
level
24%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
34%

Górnik Zabrze II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Zabrze II vs Górnik Polkowice

Górnik Zabrze II and Górnik Polkowice drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Boisko GKS Gwarek Ornontwice in Ornontowice.