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Górnik Polkowice vs Górnik Zabrze II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
11/2/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Górnik Polkowice44%
×Draw23%
Górnik Zabrze II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.73
Górnik Zabrze II
1.48

Górnik Polkowice creates 17% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 103 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.72
Górnik Zabrze II
1.70

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.26
Górnik Zabrze II
1.75

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Górnik Zabrze II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
67%
Górnik Polkowice or Górnik Zabrze II
77%
Draw or Górnik Zabrze II
56%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
23%
Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
82%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
52%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
25%
Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
77%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
43%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
57%
Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Górnik Zabrze II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.70 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
44%
level
23%
Górnik Zabrze II scores more
33%

Górnik Polkowice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Górnik Zabrze II

Górnik Polkowice and Górnik Zabrze II drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.