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Górnik Zabrze II vs Goczałkowice Zdrój — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
5/2/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II45%
×Draw25%
Goczałkowice Zdrój30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze II
1.58
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.23

Górnik Zabrze II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.79
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.22

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.25
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.37

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par
Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw
70%
Górnik Zabrze II or Goczałkowice Zdrój
75%
Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój
55%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
23%
Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
79%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
47%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
21%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
71%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
35%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
60%
Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.58

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.22 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more
45%
level
25%
Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
30%

Górnik Zabrze II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Górnik Zabrze II 1–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój

Górnik Zabrze II beat Goczałkowice Zdrój 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zabrze.