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Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Górnik Zabrze II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
FT
2 – 2
Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
10/5/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Panatoni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój43%
×Draw24%
Górnik Zabrze II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.67
Górnik Zabrze II
1.42

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 18% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

creates per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.59
Górnik Zabrze II
1.70

allows per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.13
Górnik Zabrze II
1.75

finishing

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par
Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goczałkowice Zdrój ↓

Górnik Zabrze II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw
67%
Goczałkowice Zdrój or Górnik Zabrze II
76%
Draw or Górnik Zabrze II
57%

Winning margin

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
22%
Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
81%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
50%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
23%
Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
76%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
41%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
57%
Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goczałkowice Zdrój at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Górnik Zabrze II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.59 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.67

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.70 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
43%
level
24%
Górnik Zabrze II scores more
33%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Goczałkowice Zdrój 2–2 Górnik Zabrze II

Goczałkowice Zdrój and Górnik Zabrze II drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Panatoni Arena in Goczałkowice-Zdrój.