Górnik Zabrze II 1–1 Chrobry Głogów II

Górnik Zabrze II

FT

1 – 1

Chrobry Głogów II

6/3/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 32Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II49%

×Draw25%

Chrobry Głogów II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik Zabrze IIExpected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.13

Górnik Zabrze II

1.63

Chrobry Głogów II

1.13

Górnik Zabrze II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 17 away

1.79

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II

1.79

Chrobry Głogów II

1.00

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II

1.25

Chrobry Głogów II

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw

74%

Górnik Zabrze II or Chrobry Głogów II

75%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów II

51%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+

26%

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals

80%

Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals

48%

Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals

22%

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals

68%

Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals

31%

Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)

65%

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.63

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more

49%

level

25%

Chrobry Głogów II scores more

26%

Górnik Zabrze II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff