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Chrobry Głogów II vs Górnik Zabrze II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
FT
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
A. Marciniak 90'
B. Matysiak 79'
W. Wawrzyniak 68'
T. Wojciechowski 49'
K. Joachim 89'
B. Korbecki 83'
D. Scislak 5'
11/5/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II29%
×Draw21%
Górnik Zabrze II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów II
1.61
Górnik Zabrze II
2.17

Górnik Zabrze II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II
1.47
Górnik Zabrze II
1.70

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II
2.65
Górnik Zabrze II
1.75

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par
Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Górnik Zabrze II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw
50%
Chrobry Głogów II or Górnik Zabrze II
79%
Draw or Górnik Zabrze II
71%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
14%
Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
80%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
48%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
22%
Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
89%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
64%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
36%
Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Górnik Zabrze II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.61

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.70 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more
29%
level
21%
Górnik Zabrze II scores more
50%

Górnik Zabrze II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
D. Scislak
49'
T. Wojciechowski
68'
W. Wawrzyniak
79'
B. Matysiak
83'
B. Korbecki
89'
K. Joachim
90'
A. Marciniak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów II vs Górnik Zabrze II

Chrobry Głogów II beat Górnik Zabrze II 4-3 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 5, 2022.

Goals: D. Scislak (5'), T. Wojciechowski (49'), W. Wawrzyniak (68'), B. Matysiak (79'), B. Korbecki (83'), K. Joachim (89'), A. Marciniak (90').

The match was played at MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie in Głogów.