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Górnik Zabrze II vs Carina Gubin — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
9/29/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II44%
×Draw24%
Carina Gubin32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze II
1.65
Carina Gubin
1.38

Górnik Zabrze II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 85 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.79
Carina Gubin
1.51

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.25
Carina Gubin
1.51

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par
Carina Gubin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Carina Gubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw
68%
Górnik Zabrze II or Carina Gubin
76%
Draw or Carina Gubin
56%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
23%
Carina Gubin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
81%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
49%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
23%
Carina Gubin 1+ goals
75%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
40%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
58%
Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Carina Gubin away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Carina Gubin defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.65

Carina Gubin attack 1.51 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more
44%
level
24%
Carina Gubin scores more
32%

Górnik Zabrze II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Górnik Zabrze II 1–1 Carina Gubin

Górnik Zabrze II and Carina Gubin drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zabrze.