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Carina Gubin vs Górnik Zabrze II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
4/26/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27Stadion Miejski Gubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Carina Gubin39%
×Draw24%
Górnik Zabrze II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carina Gubin
1.56
Górnik Zabrze II
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 103 away

creates per match

Carina Gubin
1.38
Górnik Zabrze II
1.70

allows per match

Carina Gubin
1.29
Górnik Zabrze II
1.75

finishing

Carina Gubin+0.00on par
Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carina Gubin ↓

Górnik Zabrze II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Carina Gubin or draw
63%
Carina Gubin or Górnik Zabrze II
76%
Draw or Górnik Zabrze II
61%

Winning margin

Carina Gubin wins by 2+
19%
Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Carina Gubin 1+ goals
79%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
46%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
21%
Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
78%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
44%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
52%
Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carina Gubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 84 matches

Górnik Zabrze II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carina Gubin attack 1.38 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.70 + Carina Gubin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carina Gubin scores more
39%
level
24%
Górnik Zabrze II scores more
37%

Carina Gubin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Carina Gubin 3–3 Górnik Zabrze II

Carina Gubin and Górnik Zabrze II drew 3-3 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Gubin in Gubin.