Górnik Polkowice 4–3 Widzew Łódź: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

4 – 3

HT: 4 – 2

Widzew Łódź

D. Radziemski 41'

P. Mucha 23'

E. Sobków 18'

M. Opałacz 6'

R. Wolsztyński 50', 45+3', 14'

6/28/2020

II Liga - East · Round 28Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice40%

×Draw24%

Widzew Łódź36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchWidzew Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.43

Górnik Polkowice

1.53

Widzew Łódź

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

2.00

creates per match

1.71

1.15

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

2.00

Widzew Łódź

1.71

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.15

Widzew Łódź

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Widzew Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

64%

Górnik Polkowice or Widzew Łódź

76%

Draw or Widzew Łódź

60%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

20%

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

78%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

45%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

20%

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

76%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

42%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

53%

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 2.00 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.53

Widzew Łódź attack 1.71 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

40%

level

24%

Widzew Łódź scores more

36%

Górnik Polkowice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

14'

18'

18'

21'

23'

31'

S. Rudol← H. Wołąkiewicz

37'

D. Radziemski← E. Sobków

41'

45+3'

48'

50'

60'

C. Mandiangu← H. Ojamaa

61'

M. Magdziak← M. Opałacz

68'

M. Baszak← K. Fryzowicz

73'

M. Gąsior← M. Możdżeń

74'

A. Radwanski

81'

P. Szuszkiewicz

82'

K. Osiadły← K. Wacławczyk

85'

R. Prochownik← A. Radwański

Górnik

Widzew

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Sobków

Manager: E. Dobi

37'▲D. Radziemski←▼E. Sobków

61'▲M. Magdziak←▼M. Opałacz

68'▲M. Baszak←▼K. Fryzowicz

82'▲K. Osiadły←▼K. Wacławczyk

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

RadziemskiMagdziakBaszakOsiadły

Manager: M. Kaczmarek

31'▲S. Rudol←▼H. Wołąkiewicz

60'▲C. Mandiangu←▼H. Ojamaa

73'▲M. Gąsior←▼M. Możdżeń

85'▲R. Prochownik←▼A. Radwański

Widzew Łódź substitutes

RudolMandianguGąsiorProchownik