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Górnik Polkowice vs Stal Brzeg — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
Preview
16:00
Stal Brzeg
Stal Brzeg
5/8/2027III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 30
48%
Górnik Polkowice
model favours
48%24%28%

Górnik Polkowice score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Górnik Polkowice48%
×Draw24%
Stal Brzeg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.75
Stal Brzeg
1.28

Górnik Polkowice creates 37% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 69 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.72
Stal Brzeg
1.30

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.26
Stal Brzeg
1.77

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Stal Brzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Stal Brzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
72%
Górnik Polkowice or Stal Brzeg
76%
Draw or Stal Brzeg
52%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
26%
Stal Brzeg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
83%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
52%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
25%
Stal Brzeg 1+ goals
72%
Stal Brzeg 2+ goals
37%
Stal Brzeg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
63%
Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Stal Brzeg away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

Stal Brzeg attack 1.30 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
48%
level
24%
Stal Brzeg scores more
28%

Górnik Polkowice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 83% of Górnik Polkowice’s matches
  • 67% of Górnik Polkowice’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Polkowice
WWLLL
Brzeg
WWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Górnik Polkowice host Stal Brzeg

May 8, 2027: Górnik Polkowice take on Stal Brzeg in III Liga - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.