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Górnik Polkowice vs Polonia Nysa — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa
2/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Górnik Polkowice45%
×Draw22%
Polonia Nysa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.88
Polonia Nysa
1.58

Górnik Polkowice creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.92
Polonia Nysa
1.33

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.83
Polonia Nysa
1.83

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Polonia Nysa+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Polonia Nysa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
67%
Górnik Polkowice or Polonia Nysa
78%
Draw or Polonia Nysa
55%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
25%
Polonia Nysa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
85%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
56%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
29%
Polonia Nysa 1+ goals
79%
Polonia Nysa 2+ goals
47%
Polonia Nysa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
58%
Polonia Nysa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Polonia Nysa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.92 + Polonia Nysa defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.88

Polonia Nysa attack 1.33 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
45%
level
22%
Polonia Nysa scores more
33%

Górnik Polkowice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Górnik Polkowice 4–1 Polonia Nysa

Górnik Polkowice beat Polonia Nysa 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 14, 2026.