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Górnik Polkowice vs Polonia Nysa — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa
M. Jozwiak 56'
8/8/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 2Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Górnik Polkowice54%
×Draw22%
Polonia Nysa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.95
Polonia Nysa
1.23

Górnik Polkowice creates 59% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.72
Polonia Nysa
1.20

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.26
Polonia Nysa
2.18

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Polonia Nysa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Polonia Nysa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
76%
Górnik Polkowice or Polonia Nysa
78%
Draw or Polonia Nysa
46%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
31%
Polonia Nysa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
86%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
58%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
31%
Polonia Nysa 1+ goals
71%
Polonia Nysa 2+ goals
35%
Polonia Nysa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
69%
Polonia Nysa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Polonia Nysa away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Polonia Nysa defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.95

Polonia Nysa attack 1.20 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
54%
level
22%
Polonia Nysa scores more
24%

Górnik Polkowice at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
M. Jozwiak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Polonia Nysa

Górnik Polkowice beat Polonia Nysa 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 8, 2025.

Goals: M. Jozwiak (56').

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.