Górnik Polkowice 4–0 Jastrzębie: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jastrzębie

B. Dyszy 90+2'

A. Piech 87' (pen), 81' (pen), 48'

11/12/2022

II Liga - East · Round 19Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Górnik Polkowice55%

×Draw23%

Jastrzębie22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchJastrzębie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.06

Górnik Polkowice

1.81

Jastrzębie

1.06

Górnik Polkowice creates 71% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 63 away

2.00

creates per match

0.98

1.15

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

2.00

Jastrzębie

0.98

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.15

Jastrzębie

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Jastrzębie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

78%

Górnik Polkowice or Jastrzębie

77%

Draw or Jastrzębie

45%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

31%

Jastrzębie wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

84%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

54%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

27%

Jastrzębie 1+ goals

65%

Jastrzębie 2+ goals

29%

Jastrzębie 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

71%

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.62 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 2.00 + Jastrzębie defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

Jastrzębie attack 0.98 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

55%

level

23%

Jastrzębie scores more

22%

Górnik Polkowice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

M. Magdziak

45+2'

B. Borun

46'

S. Kiebzak← K. Wacławczyk

48'

A. Piech

50'

D. Burka

58'

J. Ratajczak

60'

B. Dyszy← M. Magdziak

65'

D. Pisarek← M. Idzik

65'

M. Bojdys← D. Burka

67'

K. Gościniarek← R. Karmelita

69'

P. Lech

81'

A. PiechPenalty

86'

D. Szkudlarek← S. Gołuch

86'

J. Kasperowicz← K. Kawula

87'

A. PiechPenalty

90+2'

B. Dyszy

Górnik

Jastrzębie

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

Manager: T. Grzegorczyk

46'▲S. Kiebzak←▼K. Wacławczyk

60'▲B. Dyszy←▼M. Magdziak

65'▲D. Pisarek←▼M. Idzik

65'▲M. Bojdys←▼D. Burka

67'▲K. Gościniarek←▼R. Karmelita

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

KiebzakDyszyPisarekBojdysGościniarek

Manager: G. Kurdziel

86'▲D. Szkudlarek←▼S. Gołuch

86'▲J. Kasperowicz←▼K. Kawula

Jastrzębie substitutes

SzkudlarekKasperowicz