Górnik Polkowice 1–0 Jastrzębie: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jastrzębie

B. Żołądź 7'

4/27/2022

I Liga · Round 30Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice38%

×Draw29%

Jastrzębie33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchJastrzębie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.05

Górnik Polkowice

1.14

Jastrzębie

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 65 away

0.88

creates per match

0.98

1.12

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

0.88

Jastrzębie

0.98

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.12

Jastrzębie

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Jastrzębie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

67%

Górnik Polkowice or Jastrzębie

71%

Draw or Jastrzębie

62%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

16%

Jastrzębie wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

68%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

32%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

11%

Jastrzębie 1+ goals

65%

Jastrzębie 2+ goals

28%

Jastrzębie 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

53%

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.40 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 0.88 + Jastrzębie defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Jastrzębie attack 0.98 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

38%

level

29%

Jastrzębie scores more

33%

Górnik Polkowice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

B. Żołądź

10'

D. Szkudlarek

27'

O. Podhorin

35'

K. Handzlik← D. Szkudlarek

38'

M. Slodowy

46'

S. Zalewski← D. Kamiński

56'

K. Fryzowicz

58'

D. Makuch← A. Kozubal

65'

A. Purzycki← B. Żołądź

65'

E. Sobków← R. Gegedosh

73'

Ł. Zejdler← R. Borkała

76'

D. Radziemski← R. Karmelita

76'

M. Szuszkiewicz← A. Hafez

Górnik

Jastrzębie

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Szydelko

58'▲D. Makuch←▼A. Kozubal

65'▲A. Purzycki←▼B. Żołądź

65'▲E. Sobków←▼R. Gegedosh

76'▲D. Radziemski←▼R. Karmelita

76'▲M. Szuszkiewicz←▼A. Hafez

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

MakuchPurzyckiSobkówRadziemskiSzuszkiewiczWacławczykBancewiczMalecOpałacz

Manager: G. Kurdziel

35'▲K. Handzlik←▼D. Szkudlarek

46'▲S. Zalewski←▼D. Kamiński

73'▲Ł. Zejdler←▼R. Borkała

Jastrzębie substitutes

HandzlikZalewskiZejdlerStanclikŁukasikMisalaReclafGajda

I Liga: Górnik Polkowice 1–0 Jastrzębie

Górnik Polkowice beat Jastrzębie 1-0 in I Liga on April 27, 2022.

Goals: B. Żołądź (7').

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.

Górnik Polkowice vs Jastrzębie — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Górnik Polkowice 1–0 Jastrzębie