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Górnik Polkowice vs Goczałkowice Zdrój — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
4/17/2026III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 27Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Górnik Polkowice44%
×Draw25%
Goczałkowice Zdrój31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.54
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.24

Górnik Polkowice creates 24% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 102 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.72
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.22

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.26
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.37

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
69%
Górnik Polkowice or Goczałkowice Zdrój
75%
Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój
56%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
22%
Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
79%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
45%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
20%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
71%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
35%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
59%
Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.54

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.22 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
44%
level
25%
Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
31%

Górnik Polkowice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Goczałkowice Zdrój

Górnik Polkowice and Goczałkowice Zdrój drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 17, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.