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Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Górnik Polkowice — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
FT
2 – 1
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
3/23/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Panatoni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój40%
×Draw25%
Górnik Polkowice35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.46
Górnik Polkowice
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

creates per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.59
Górnik Polkowice
1.55

allows per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.13
Górnik Polkowice
1.33

finishing

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goczałkowice Zdrój ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw
65%
Goczałkowice Zdrój or Górnik Polkowice
75%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
60%

Winning margin

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
19%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
77%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
43%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
18%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
74%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
39%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
54%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goczałkowice Zdrój at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.59 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
40%
level
25%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
35%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Górnik Polkowice

Goczałkowice Zdrój beat Górnik Polkowice 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Panatoni Arena in Goczałkowice-Zdrój.