Górnik Polkowice 3–0 Elana Toruń: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Elana Toruń

M. Bancewicz 22'

M. Bednarski 6' (pen)

M. Szuszkiewicz 1'

9/21/2019

II Liga - East · Round 10Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice55%

×Draw23%

Elana Toruń22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchElana Toruń

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.04

Górnik Polkowice

1.79

Elana Toruń

1.04

Górnik Polkowice creates 72% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

2.00

creates per match

0.94

1.15

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

2.00

Elana Toruń

0.94

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.15

Elana Toruń

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Elana Toruń →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

78%

Górnik Polkowice or Elana Toruń

77%

Draw or Elana Toruń

45%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

31%

Elana Toruń wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

83%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

53%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

26%

Elana Toruń 1+ goals

65%

Elana Toruń 2+ goals

28%

Elana Toruń 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

71%

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Elana Toruń away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 2.00 + Elana Toruń defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.79

Elana Toruń attack 0.94 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

55%

level

23%

Elana Toruń scores more

22%

Górnik Polkowice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

M. Szuszkiewicz

6'

M. BednarskiPenalty

19'

H. Kisiel← D. Lenkiewicz

22'

M. Bancewicz

46'

K. Górka← J. Świeciński

46'

D. Sokół← B. Machaj

59'

R. Karmelita← M. Szuszkiewicz

66'

E. Sobków← M. Bednarski

70'

Kacper Jozwicki← B. Boniecki

82'

W. Galas← P. Mucha

86'

K. Osiadły← F. Baranowski

Górnik

Elana

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Szuszkiew

⚽

▼

Bednarski

Manager: E. Dobi

59'▲R. Karmelita←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

66'▲E. Sobków←▼M. Bednarski

82'▲W. Galas←▼P. Mucha

86'▲K. Osiadły←▼F. Baranowski

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

KarmelitaSobkówGalasOsiadły

Manager: A. Jakubowski

19'▲H. Kisiel←▼D. Lenkiewicz

46'▲K. Górka←▼J. Świeciński

46'▲D. Sokół←▼B. Machaj

70'▲Kacper Jozwicki←▼B. Boniecki

Elana Toruń substitutes

KisielGórkaSokółJozwicki