Elana Toruń 1–4 Górnik Polkowice: Result & Stats

Elana Toruń

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Górnik Polkowice

F. Kozłowski 43'

M. Bednarski 90+1', 52', 33', 24'

6/21/2020

II Liga - East · Round 27Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Elana Toruń41%

×Draw24%

Górnik Polkowice35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elana ToruńExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.50

Elana Toruń

1.65

Górnik Polkowice

1.50

Elana Toruń creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

2.00

creates per match

1.40

1.59

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Elana Toruń

2.00

Górnik Polkowice

1.40

allows per match

Elana Toruń

1.59

Górnik Polkowice

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elana Toruń ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Elana Toruń or draw

65%

Elana Toruń or Górnik Polkowice

76%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

59%

Winning margin

Elana Toruń wins by 2+

21%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Elana Toruń 1+ goals

81%

Elana Toruń 2+ goals

49%

Elana Toruń 3+ goals

23%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

78%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

44%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)

54%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elana Toruń at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elana Toruń attack 2.00 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + Elana Toruń defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Elana Toruń scores more

41%

level

24%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

35%

Elana Toruń at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Elana Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

24'

33'

43'

46'

M. Magdziak← M. Opałacz

46'

D. Radziemski← E. Sobków

49'

M. Ekwueme

52'

M. Bednarski

56'

D. Kościelniak← B. Boniecki

59'

S. Rak← K. Górka

62'

R. Karmelita← M. Ekwueme

65'

M. Stryjewski← K. Kołodziej

68'

M. Magdziak

71'

M. Bierzalo

76'

D. Pisarek← B. Machaj

89'

K. Ciupka← M. Szuszkiewicz

90+1'

M. Bednarski

Elana

Górnik

▼

▼

▼

⚽4

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: B. Pietrzak

56'▲D. Kościelniak←▼B. Boniecki

59'▲S. Rak←▼K. Górka

65'▲M. Stryjewski←▼K. Kołodziej

76'▲D. Pisarek←▼B. Machaj

Elana Toruń substitutes

KościelniakRakStryjewskiPisarek

Manager: E. Dobi

46'▲M. Magdziak←▼M. Opałacz

46'▲D. Radziemski←▼E. Sobków

62'▲R. Karmelita←▼M. Ekwueme

89'▲K. Ciupka←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

MagdziakRadziemskiKarmelitaCiupka