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Górnik Polkowice vs Bytovia Bytów — II Liga - East 2019

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
6/5/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 37Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Górnik Polkowice55%
×Draw22%
Bytovia Bytów23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.93
Bytovia Bytów
1.16

Górnik Polkowice creates 66% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 35 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
2.00
Bytovia Bytów
1.17

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.15
Bytovia Bytów
1.86

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
77%
Górnik Polkowice or Bytovia Bytów
78%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
45%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
32%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
85%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
57%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
30%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
69%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
32%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
71%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 2.00 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
55%
level
22%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
23%

Górnik Polkowice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Bytovia Bytów

Górnik Polkowice beat Bytovia Bytów 5-0 in II Liga - East on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.