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Bytovia Bytów vs Górnik Polkowice — II Liga - East 2019

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
12/12/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 18Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bytovia Bytów39%
×Draw25%
Górnik Polkowice36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.44
Górnik Polkowice
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 53 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.57
Górnik Polkowice
1.40

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.37
Górnik Polkowice
1.30

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
64%
Bytovia Bytów or Górnik Polkowice
75%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
61%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
18%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
76%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
42%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
18%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
75%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
40%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
52%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
39%
level
25%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
36%

Bytovia Bytów at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bytovia Bytów vs Górnik Polkowice

Górnik Polkowice beat Bytovia Bytów 2-0 in II Liga - East on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Bytów.