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Górnik Konin vs Flota Świnoujście — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
FT
1 – 1
Flota Świnoujście
Flota Świnoujście
9/5/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Konin25%
×Draw22%
Flota Świnoujście53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Konin
1.31
Flota Świnoujście
2.01

Flota Świnoujście creates 53% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Górnik Konin
1.06
Flota Świnoujście
1.38

allows per match

Górnik Konin
2.65
Flota Świnoujście
1.56

finishing

Górnik Konin+0.00on par
Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Konin ↓

Flota Świnoujście →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Górnik Konin or draw
47%
Górnik Konin or Flota Świnoujście
78%
Draw or Flota Świnoujście
75%

Winning margin

Górnik Konin wins by 2+
10%
Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Górnik Konin 1+ goals
73%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
38%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
14%
Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals
87%
Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals
59%
Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
32%
Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Konin at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Flota Świnoujście away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Konin attack 1.06 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.38 + Górnik Konin defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Górnik Konin scores more
25%
level
22%
Flota Świnoujście scores more
53%

Flota Świnoujście at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Flota Świnoujście will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Górnik Konin 1–1 Flota Świnoujście

Górnik Konin and Flota Świnoujście drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego in Konin.