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Flota Świnoujście vs Górnik Konin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Flota Świnoujście
Flota Świnoujście
FT
0 – 1
Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
5/29/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Flota Świnoujście45%
×Draw25%
Górnik Konin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flota Świnoujście
1.61
Górnik Konin
1.27

Flota Świnoujście creates 27% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Flota Świnoujście
1.40
Górnik Konin
0.82

allows per match

Flota Świnoujście
1.72
Górnik Konin
1.82

finishing

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par
Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flota Świnoujście ↓

Górnik Konin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Flota Świnoujście or draw
70%
Flota Świnoujście or Górnik Konin
75%
Draw or Górnik Konin
55%

Winning margin

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+
23%
Górnik Konin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals
80%
Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals
48%
Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals
22%
Górnik Konin 1+ goals
72%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
36%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)
60%
Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flota Świnoujście at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

Górnik Konin away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.40 + Górnik Konin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.61

Górnik Konin attack 0.82 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Flota Świnoujście scores more
45%
level
25%
Górnik Konin scores more
30%

Flota Świnoujście at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Flota Świnoujście will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flota Świnoujście vs Górnik Konin

Górnik Konin beat Flota Świnoujście 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Świnoujście.