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Górnik Łęczna W vs GKS Katowice W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Górnik Łęczna W
Górnik Łęczna W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
GKS Katowice W
GKS Katowice W
4/26/2025Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 19Bogdanka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Górnik Łęczna W29%
×Draw24%
GKS Katowice W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Łęczna W
1.27
GKS Katowice W
1.67

GKS Katowice W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna W
1.72
GKS Katowice W
2.42

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna W
0.91
GKS Katowice W
0.82

finishing

Górnik Łęczna W+0.00on par
GKS Katowice W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna W ↓

GKS Katowice W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna W or draw
53%
Górnik Łęczna W or GKS Katowice W
76%
Draw or GKS Katowice W
71%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna W wins by 2+
12%
GKS Katowice W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna W 1+ goals
72%
Górnik Łęczna W 2+ goals
36%
Górnik Łęczna W 3+ goals
14%
GKS Katowice W 1+ goals
81%
GKS Katowice W 2+ goals
50%
GKS Katowice W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna W (draw refunded)
38%
GKS Katowice W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna W at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

GKS Katowice W away — creates 2.42, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna W attack 1.72 + GKS Katowice W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.27

GKS Katowice W attack 2.42 + Górnik Łęczna W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Górnik Łęczna W scores more
29%
level
24%
GKS Katowice W scores more
47%

GKS Katowice W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "GKS Katowice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Górnik Łęczna W 2–0 GKS Katowice W

Górnik Łęczna W beat GKS Katowice W 2-0 in Ekstraliga Women on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Bogdanka Arena in Łęczna.