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GKS Katowice W vs Górnik Łęczna W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

GKS Katowice W
GKS Katowice W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Górnik Łęczna W
Górnik Łęczna W
10/3/2025Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 8Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

GKS Katowice W48%
×Draw22%
Górnik Łęczna W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice W
2.03
Górnik Łęczna W
1.57

GKS Katowice W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice W
2.88
Górnik Łęczna W
2.39

allows per match

GKS Katowice W
0.75
Górnik Łęczna W
1.18

finishing

GKS Katowice W+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice W ↓

Górnik Łęczna W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

GKS Katowice W or draw
70%
GKS Katowice W or Górnik Łęczna W
78%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna W
52%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice W wins by 2+
28%
Górnik Łęczna W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

GKS Katowice W 1+ goals
87%
GKS Katowice W 2+ goals
60%
GKS Katowice W 3+ goals
33%
Górnik Łęczna W 1+ goals
79%
Górnik Łęczna W 2+ goals
46%
Górnik Łęczna W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice W (draw refunded)
62%
Górnik Łęczna W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Górnik Łęczna W away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice W attack 2.88 + Górnik Łęczna W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.03

Górnik Łęczna W attack 2.39 + GKS Katowice W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

GKS Katowice W scores more
48%
level
22%
Górnik Łęczna W scores more
30%

GKS Katowice W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "GKS Katowice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: GKS Katowice W 0–4 Górnik Łęczna W

Górnik Łęczna W beat GKS Katowice W 4-0 in Ekstraliga Women on October 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.