GOR Mahia 5–1 Aigle Noir: Result & Stats

GOR Mahia

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Aigle Noir

B. Omondi 66'

D. Ambudo 64'

N. Kipkirui 38', 16'

I. Kamana 5' (OG)

B. Gasongo 74'

8/25/2019

CAF Champions League · Preliminary RoundMoi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

GOR Mahia63%

×Draw19%

Aigle Noir18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GOR MahiaExpected goals in this matchAigle Noir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.17

GOR Mahia

2.33

Aigle Noir

1.17

GOR Mahia creates 99% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

0.67

1.67

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

GOR Mahia

2.33

Aigle Noir

0.67

allows per match

GOR Mahia

1.67

Aigle Noir

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Aigle Noir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Aigle Noir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw

82%

GOR Mahia or Aigle Noir

81%

Draw or Aigle Noir

37%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

41%

Aigle Noir wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

90%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

67%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

41%

Aigle Noir 1+ goals

69%

Aigle Noir 2+ goals

33%

Aigle Noir 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

78%

Aigle Noir (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Aigle Noir away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 2.33 + Aigle Noir defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Aigle Noir attack 0.67 + GOR Mahia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

GOR Mahia scores more

63%

level

19%

Aigle Noir scores more

18%

GOR Mahia at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

I. KamanaOwn goal

16'

38'

64'

66'

74'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff