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Aigle Noir vs GOR Mahia — CAF Champions League 2019

Aigle Noir
Aigle Noir
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
8/11/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Preliminary RoundStade Intwari (Bujumbura)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Aigle Noir63%
×Draw28%
GOR Mahia9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Noir
1.33
GOR Mahia
0.33

Aigle Noir creates 303% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Aigle Noir
0.00
GOR Mahia
0.33

allows per match

Aigle Noir
0.33
GOR Mahia
2.67

finishing

Aigle Noir+0.00on par
GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Noir ↓

GOR Mahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Aigle Noir or draw
91%
Aigle Noir or GOR Mahia
72%
Draw or GOR Mahia
37%

Winning margin

Aigle Noir wins by 2+
31%
GOR Mahia wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Aigle Noir 1+ goals
74%
Aigle Noir 2+ goals
38%
Aigle Noir 3+ goals
15%
GOR Mahia 1+ goals
28%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
4%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Aigle Noir (draw refunded)
87%
GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Noir at home — creates 0.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Noir attack 0.00 + GOR Mahia defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

GOR Mahia attack 0.33 + Aigle Noir defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Aigle Noir scores more
63%
level
28%
GOR Mahia scores more
9%

Aigle Noir at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Aigle Noir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Aigle Noir 0–0 GOR Mahia

Aigle Noir and GOR Mahia drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on August 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Intwari (Bujumbura).