Göppinger SV 3–2 CFR Pforzheim: Result & Stats

Göppinger SV

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

CFR Pforzheim

11/24/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 19Stadion SV Göppingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Göppinger SV45%

×Draw23%

CFR Pforzheim32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Göppinger SVExpected goals in this matchCFR Pforzheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.49

Göppinger SV

1.79

CFR Pforzheim

1.49

Göppinger SV creates 20% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 93 away

2.05

creates per match

1.71

1.27

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Göppinger SV

2.05

CFR Pforzheim

1.71

allows per match

Göppinger SV

1.27

CFR Pforzheim

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Göppinger SV+0.00on par

CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göppinger SV ↓

CFR Pforzheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Göppinger SV or draw

68%

Göppinger SV or CFR Pforzheim

77%

Draw or CFR Pforzheim

55%

Winning margin

Göppinger SV wins by 2+

24%

CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Göppinger SV 1+ goals

83%

Göppinger SV 2+ goals

53%

Göppinger SV 3+ goals

26%

CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals

77%

CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals

44%

CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)

58%

CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göppinger SV at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

CFR Pforzheim away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göppinger SV attack 2.05 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.79

CFR Pforzheim attack 1.71 + Göppinger SV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Göppinger SV scores more

45%

level

23%

CFR Pforzheim scores more

32%

Göppinger SV at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Göppinger SV 3–2 CFR Pforzheim

Göppinger SV beat CFR Pforzheim 3-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SV Göppingen in Göppingen.

Göppinger SV vs CFR Pforzheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Göppinger SV 3–2 CFR Pforzheim