CFR Pforzheim 1–1 Göppinger SV: Result & Stats

CFR Pforzheim

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Göppinger SV

8/11/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 2KRAMSKI-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

CFR Pforzheim49%

×Draw22%

Göppinger SV29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR PforzheimExpected goals in this matchGöppinger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.44

CFR Pforzheim

1.93

Göppinger SV

1.44

CFR Pforzheim creates 34% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 76 away

2.39

creates per match

1.49

1.39

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

CFR Pforzheim

2.39

Göppinger SV

1.49

allows per match

CFR Pforzheim

1.39

Göppinger SV

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR Pforzheim ↓

Göppinger SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

CFR Pforzheim or draw

71%

CFR Pforzheim or Göppinger SV

78%

Draw or Göppinger SV

51%

Winning margin

CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+

28%

Göppinger SV wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals

85%

CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals

57%

CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals

30%

Göppinger SV 1+ goals

76%

Göppinger SV 2+ goals

42%

Göppinger SV 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)

63%

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR Pforzheim at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Göppinger SV away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR Pforzheim attack 2.39 + Göppinger SV defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.93

Göppinger SV attack 1.49 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CFR Pforzheim scores more

49%

level

22%

Göppinger SV scores more

29%

CFR Pforzheim at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff