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Göppinger SV vs Astoria Walldorf II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
CANC
13:00
Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
12/5/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 19Stadion SV Göppingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Göppinger SV53%
×Draw22%
Astoria Walldorf II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göppinger SV
2.00
Astoria Walldorf II
1.31

Göppinger SV creates 53% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 25 away

creates per match

Göppinger SV
2.05
Astoria Walldorf II
1.36

allows per match

Göppinger SV
1.27
Astoria Walldorf II
1.96

finishing

Göppinger SV+0.00on par
Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göppinger SV ↓

Astoria Walldorf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Göppinger SV or draw
75%
Göppinger SV or Astoria Walldorf II
78%
Draw or Astoria Walldorf II
47%

Winning margin

Göppinger SV wins by 2+
31%
Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Göppinger SV 1+ goals
86%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
59%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
32%
Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
73%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
38%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
68%
Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göppinger SV at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Astoria Walldorf II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göppinger SV attack 2.05 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.00

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.36 + Göppinger SV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Göppinger SV scores more
53%
level
22%
Astoria Walldorf II scores more
25%

Göppinger SV at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Göppinger SV face Astoria Walldorf II (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg returns with Göppinger SV hosting Astoria Walldorf II. Match starts December 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Göppinger SV host Astoria Walldorf II at Stadion SV Göppingen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.