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Astoria Walldorf II vs Göppinger SV — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
5/14/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 35Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Astoria Walldorf II30%
×Draw22%
Göppinger SV49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astoria Walldorf II
1.54
Göppinger SV
2.02

Göppinger SV creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 76 away

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf II
1.62
Göppinger SV
1.49

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf II
2.54
Göppinger SV
1.47

finishing

Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par
Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf II ↓

Göppinger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf II or draw
51%
Astoria Walldorf II or Göppinger SV
78%
Draw or Göppinger SV
70%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
14%
Göppinger SV wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
79%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
45%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
20%
Göppinger SV 1+ goals
87%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
60%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
38%
Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Göppinger SV away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.62 + Göppinger SV defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Göppinger SV attack 1.49 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Astoria Walldorf II scores more
30%
level
22%
Göppinger SV scores more
49%

Göppinger SV at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Astoria Walldorf II 2–0 Göppinger SV

Astoria Walldorf II beat Göppinger SV 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark in Walldorf.