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Gonsenheim vs Emmelshausen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
CANC
14:00
Emmelshausen
Emmelshausen
11/15/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 12Sportplatz am Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gonsenheim63%
×Draw20%
Emmelshausen17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gonsenheim
2.14
Emmelshausen
1.00

Gonsenheim creates 114% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gonsenheim
2.28
Emmelshausen
0.73

allows per match

Gonsenheim
1.28
Emmelshausen
2.00

finishing

Gonsenheim+0.00on par
Emmelshausen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonsenheim ↓

Emmelshausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gonsenheim or draw
83%
Gonsenheim or Emmelshausen
80%
Draw or Emmelshausen
37%

Winning margin

Gonsenheim wins by 2+
40%
Emmelshausen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gonsenheim 1+ goals
88%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
63%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
36%
Emmelshausen 1+ goals
63%
Emmelshausen 2+ goals
26%
Emmelshausen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
79%
Emmelshausen (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonsenheim at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.28 · 78 matches

Emmelshausen away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonsenheim attack 2.28 + Emmelshausen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.14

Emmelshausen attack 0.73 + Gonsenheim defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Gonsenheim scores more
63%
level
20%
Emmelshausen scores more
17%

Gonsenheim at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gonsenheim host Emmelshausen

November 15, 2020: Gonsenheim take on Emmelshausen in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gonsenheim host Emmelshausen at Sportplatz am Wildpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.