Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Emmelshausen vs Gonsenheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Emmelshausen
Emmelshausen
FT
0 – 0
Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
9/5/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 1Emmelshausen Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Emmelshausen23%
×Draw22%
Gonsenheim55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmelshausen
1.25
Gonsenheim
2.02

Gonsenheim creates 62% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 78 away

creates per match

Emmelshausen
0.93
Gonsenheim
1.83

allows per match

Emmelshausen
2.20
Gonsenheim
1.56

finishing

Emmelshausen+0.00on par
Gonsenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmelshausen ↓

Gonsenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Emmelshausen or draw
45%
Emmelshausen or Gonsenheim
78%
Draw or Gonsenheim
77%

Winning margin

Emmelshausen wins by 2+
9%
Gonsenheim wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Emmelshausen 1+ goals
71%
Emmelshausen 2+ goals
36%
Emmelshausen 3+ goals
13%
Gonsenheim 1+ goals
87%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
60%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Emmelshausen (draw refunded)
30%
Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmelshausen at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Gonsenheim away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmelshausen attack 0.93 + Gonsenheim defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gonsenheim attack 1.83 + Emmelshausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Emmelshausen scores more
23%
level
22%
Gonsenheim scores more
55%

Gonsenheim at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Emmelshausen vs Gonsenheim

Emmelshausen and Gonsenheim drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Emmelshausen Kunstrasen in Emmelshausen.