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Gonsenheim vs Arminia Ludwigshafen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
3/15/2026Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Sportplatz am Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Gonsenheim52%
×Draw21%
Arminia Ludwigshafen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gonsenheim
2.22
Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.58

Gonsenheim creates 41% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

creates per match

Gonsenheim
2.28
Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.87

allows per match

Gonsenheim
1.28
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.16

finishing

Gonsenheim+0.00on par
Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonsenheim ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Gonsenheim or draw
73%
Gonsenheim or Arminia Ludwigshafen
79%
Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen
48%

Winning margin

Gonsenheim wins by 2+
31%
Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gonsenheim 1+ goals
89%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
65%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
38%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
79%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
47%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
65%
Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonsenheim at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.28 · 78 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonsenheim attack 2.28 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.22

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.87 + Gonsenheim defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gonsenheim scores more
52%
level
21%
Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
27%

Gonsenheim at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gonsenheim vs Arminia Ludwigshafen

Arminia Ludwigshafen beat Gonsenheim 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Wildpark in Mainz.