Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arminia Ludwigshafen vs Gonsenheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
3/9/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 26Südweststadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen37%
×Draw22%
Gonsenheim41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.70
Gonsenheim
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 78 away

creates per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.83
Gonsenheim
1.83

allows per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.79
Gonsenheim
1.56

finishing

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par
Gonsenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Ludwigshafen ↓

Gonsenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Arminia Ludwigshafen or draw
59%
Arminia Ludwigshafen or Gonsenheim
78%
Draw or Gonsenheim
63%

Winning margin

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
18%
Gonsenheim wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
82%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
51%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
24%
Gonsenheim 1+ goals
84%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
54%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
47%
Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Ludwigshafen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.79 · 78 matches

Gonsenheim away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.83 + Gonsenheim defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.70

Gonsenheim attack 1.83 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
37%
level
22%
Gonsenheim scores more
41%

Gonsenheim at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Arminia Ludwigshafen 2–5 Gonsenheim

Gonsenheim beat Arminia Ludwigshafen 5-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Südweststadion in Ludwigshafen am Rhein.