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Gonsenheim vs Ahrweiler BC — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
FT
5 – 0
Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
3/5/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Sportplatz am Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Gonsenheim63%
×Draw21%
Ahrweiler BC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gonsenheim
2.04
Ahrweiler BC
0.94

Gonsenheim creates 117% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 10 away

creates per match

Gonsenheim
2.28
Ahrweiler BC
0.60

allows per match

Gonsenheim
1.28
Ahrweiler BC
1.80

finishing

Gonsenheim+0.00on par
Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonsenheim ↓

Ahrweiler BC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gonsenheim or draw
83%
Gonsenheim or Ahrweiler BC
79%
Draw or Ahrweiler BC
37%

Winning margin

Gonsenheim wins by 2+
39%
Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gonsenheim 1+ goals
87%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
60%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
33%
Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
61%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
24%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
79%
Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonsenheim at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.28 · 78 matches

Ahrweiler BC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonsenheim attack 2.28 + Ahrweiler BC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.04

Ahrweiler BC attack 0.60 + Gonsenheim defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Gonsenheim scores more
63%
level
21%
Ahrweiler BC scores more
17%

Gonsenheim at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Gonsenheim 5–0 Ahrweiler BC

Gonsenheim beat Ahrweiler BC 5-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Wildpark in Mainz.