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Ahrweiler BC vs Gonsenheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
FT
2 – 5
Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
10/8/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 11Heimersheim Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ahrweiler BC29%
×Draw21%
Gonsenheim50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahrweiler BC
1.58
Gonsenheim
2.12

Gonsenheim creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 78 away

creates per match

Ahrweiler BC
1.60
Gonsenheim
1.83

allows per match

Ahrweiler BC
2.40
Gonsenheim
1.56

finishing

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par
Gonsenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrweiler BC ↓

Gonsenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Ahrweiler BC or draw
50%
Ahrweiler BC or Gonsenheim
79%
Draw or Gonsenheim
71%

Winning margin

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
14%
Gonsenheim wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
79%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
47%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
21%
Gonsenheim 1+ goals
88%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
62%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
37%
Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrweiler BC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

Gonsenheim away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrweiler BC attack 1.60 + Gonsenheim defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Gonsenheim attack 1.83 + Ahrweiler BC defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ahrweiler BC scores more
29%
level
21%
Gonsenheim scores more
50%

Gonsenheim at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ahrweiler BC vs Gonsenheim

Gonsenheim beat Ahrweiler BC 5-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Heimersheim Kunstrasen in Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler.