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Gonsenheim U19 vs Freiburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Gonsenheim U19
Gonsenheim U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Freiburg U19
Freiburg U19
2/15/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 3Sportplatz am Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gonsenheim U1920%
×Draw21%
Freiburg U1959%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gonsenheim U19
1.15
Freiburg U19
2.12

Freiburg U19 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 60 away

creates per match

Gonsenheim U19
0.67
Freiburg U19
1.73

allows per match

Gonsenheim U19
2.50
Freiburg U19
1.62

finishing

Gonsenheim U19+0.00on par
Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonsenheim U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gonsenheim U19 or draw
41%
Gonsenheim U19 or Freiburg U19
79%
Draw or Freiburg U19
80%

Winning margin

Gonsenheim U19 wins by 2+
8%
Freiburg U19 wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Gonsenheim U19 1+ goals
68%
Gonsenheim U19 2+ goals
32%
Gonsenheim U19 3+ goals
11%
Freiburg U19 1+ goals
88%
Freiburg U19 2+ goals
62%
Freiburg U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Gonsenheim U19 (draw refunded)
25%
Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonsenheim U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonsenheim U19 attack 0.67 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.15

Freiburg U19 attack 1.73 + Gonsenheim U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gonsenheim U19 scores more
20%
level
21%
Freiburg U19 scores more
59%

Freiburg U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gonsenheim U19 vs Freiburg U19

Freiburg U19 beat Gonsenheim U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Wildpark in Mainz.