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Freiburg U19 vs Gonsenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Freiburg U19
Freiburg U19
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Gonsenheim U19
Gonsenheim U19
4/12/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 10Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Freiburg U1967%
×Draw15%
Gonsenheim U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburg U19
3.29
Gonsenheim U19
1.72

Freiburg U19 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 6 away

creates per match

Freiburg U19
2.42
Gonsenheim U19
1.83

allows per match

Freiburg U19
1.60
Gonsenheim U19
4.17

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par
Gonsenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Gonsenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw
82%
Freiburg U19 or Gonsenheim U19
85%
Draw or Gonsenheim U19
33%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+
48%
Gonsenheim U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals
96%
Freiburg U19 2+ goals
83%
Freiburg U19 3+ goals
62%
Gonsenheim U19 1+ goals
82%
Gonsenheim U19 2+ goals
51%
Gonsenheim U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)
79%
Gonsenheim U19 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

Gonsenheim U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.42 + Gonsenheim U19 defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 3.29

Gonsenheim U19 attack 1.83 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more
67%
level
15%
Gonsenheim U19 scores more
18%

Freiburg U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Freiburg U19 vs Gonsenheim U19

Freiburg U19 beat Gonsenheim U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Möslestadion in Freiburg im Breisgau.