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Gonio vs Dinamo Tbilisi II — Liga 3 2024

Gonio
Gonio
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
E. Jijavadze 28' (pen), 2'
4/16/2026Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 6Kobuleti Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gonio58%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Tbilisi II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gonio
1.91
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.02

Gonio creates 87% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gonio
2.52
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.14

allows per match

Gonio
0.91
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.29

finishing

Gonio+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonio ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gonio or draw
80%
Gonio or Dinamo Tbilisi II
78%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi II
42%

Winning margin

Gonio wins by 2+
34%
Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gonio 1+ goals
85%
Gonio 2+ goals
57%
Gonio 3+ goals
30%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gonio (draw refunded)
74%
Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonio at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonio attack 2.52 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.91

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.14 + Gonio defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gonio scores more
58%
level
22%
Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
20%

Gonio at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
E. Jijavadze
28'
E. JijavadzePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gonio 2 – 0 Dinamo Tbilisi II

Gonio beat Dinamo Tbilisi II 2-0 in Liga 3 on April 16, 2026.

Goals: E. Jijavadze (2', 28' pen).

The match was played at Kobuleti Football Center in Kobuleti.