Gombe United 0–0 Lobi Stars: Result & Stats | NPFL

Gombe United

FT

0 – 0

Lobi Stars

7/30/2017

NPFL · Round 32Pantami Township Stadium (Gombe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gombe United53%

×Draw28%

Lobi Stars19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gombe UnitedExpected goals in this matchLobi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.67

Gombe United

1.35

Lobi Stars

0.67

Gombe United creates 101% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 114 away

1.25

creates per match

0.53

0.80

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Gombe United

1.25

Lobi Stars

0.53

allows per match

Gombe United

0.80

Lobi Stars

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gombe United+0.00on par

Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gombe United ↓

Lobi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Gombe United or draw

81%

Gombe United or Lobi Stars

72%

Draw or Lobi Stars

47%

Winning margin

Gombe United wins by 2+

26%

Lobi Stars wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Gombe United 1+ goals

74%

Gombe United 2+ goals

39%

Gombe United 3+ goals

15%

Lobi Stars 1+ goals

49%

Lobi Stars 2+ goals

15%

Lobi Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Gombe United (draw refunded)

74%

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gombe United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.80 · 59 matches

Lobi Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.46 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gombe United attack 1.25 + Lobi Stars defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lobi Stars attack 0.53 + Gombe United defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gombe United scores more

53%

level

28%

Lobi Stars scores more

19%

Gombe United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gombe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff